Hey traders, this is Blake morrow with trader summit. And with me today, I have bill Baruch from blue line futures. I always love talking to your bill. Yeah. Thanks for having me on. I really enjoy visiting with you. Yeah, you know, I enjoy visiting with you because hey, first you're so knowledgeable in the commodity markets in general, but b, your calls and crude, especially the last two interviews that we've done.
You were really bullish on crude. I would be amiss. If I didn't ask you about. How you felt about it today, but I wanted to say, great calls in crude over the last several months. How do you feel about crude oil today? Looks like it's, getting comfortable below 80 bucks. So what are your thoughts?
Well? Well, thanks for acknowledging that it's, uh, you know, but right now it's about what's what's, the next trade really. And we've been putting a lot of research out about uh about, um, we'll, start the technical. Technically 84 60 to 85 dollars was a big level. We had this as. What we characterized as rare major four-star resistance, we never closed above there. And there was a gas for air was about a week ago, a week and a half ago, and it failed there again.
So that level was a huge resistance. Even before that last gasp for air, we were saying the upside is fairly limited. When you get everybody coming in there, every bank was calling for, you know, 80 then 90 then 100 branches, uh.
And then you saw the oil demand forecasts for next year. All everybody was moving. Up to 100 million barrels per day. So technically, though, uh, we felt that everybody who bought had everybody who wants to buy it already bought so from the supply demand, technical area.
And you saw started to see some managed money start to pick up, although it wasn't at previous peaks and ultimately, too, um, you know, more fundamentally, you started to see the delta rise, which I think was something. I remember going back to June of last year and that rise in delta or last year. Sorry, June of. This year and when delta started to rise, you know, I was maybe doubting it.
And then it sort of had this delayed reaction on some of the more cyclical markets. And I think that's something here that's, weighing on it. You have Germany cases picking up to China, um, you had Morgan Stanley. I think it was lower china growth, um us dollars moving higher. And you know, and with all that you have the White House threatening to release SPR. So you get these reactions too with today.
EIA data was over what. Should have been bullish, but um, because of bigger draws it's threatening to release the SPR or larger amounts of it. And I think with these crosswinds it's its, a reason for people to take a step back. Some people who've been long for a while like say us, uh with our recommendations and some some positioning on as a financial advisor. I was very overweight in energy space and have tailored those back a bit.
So I'm I'm, looking right now, as I don't know if it gets there, but 76 to.76 and a half is now a rare major four-star support, I think that would be a terrific buy. I do think we'll still get up to 100 next year. It's. Just this is a very much needed. Pullback. Good. Okay.
Well, that's that's good to hear. And you know you, you said, well, what's the next trade. Well, you know, I think gold bulls have rejoiced on the fact that we finally broke that 1830 1835, you know, depending on if you're looking at spot, or you know, the front month contract, but gold has broken out, and it's, actually. Been maintaining its gains. So how do you feel about gold where it's currently at?
Yeah, yeah. I'm I'm, sort of this eternal gold bull. And I've, you know, I cut my teeth.
First trading, basically, 20 years ago, started trading gold futures. And I love gold. I mean, you know, it's, it's been something that has treated me very well over the years. And I this year more than ever I've traded it on both sides.
And I think that, um, you know, it's giving you these. These ranges that it sort of gets exhausted. Very quick and then it comes back in.
But we finally have broken. This downtrend line going back to August of last year's peak a record high. And this move that came on the heels inserted.
The fed ultra dovish. They basically are a net. Zero taper. The amount that treasuries they tapered where essentially the U.S. treasury is going to issue less so on top of that, they feel this underlying fear with uh with the fed that they're they're, terrified of an October 2018, autopilot type moment. They are overly dovish.
I think that was game on for gold and silver. Um, I was actually somewhat, you know, thought, pathways resistance lower and was flattened into the fed meeting. But it really quickly flipped my mindset in how dovish they were to get along. And that level, which is, you know, eight, it was about eighteen hundred area was the Turnitin, moving average, it chewed through fairly quickly.
And then and then that level eighteen thirty, actually after a bullish after a hot CPI number. So it. Just goes to show you here that the gold has some real momentum behind it because it's rising with the dollar right now. I do think that it's gotten a little out ahead of itself, um, and I'm from a trading perspective, I'm sort of looking for a little swing lower.
But, but long-term wise, I mean, we're, you know as bullish as we've been in about a year. So I think right now you don't want to chase it. My narrative for years has been you don't want to be buying gold when everybody's screaming for it. That's when you want to be capitalizing on gold that you already own. So really, you know, if we pull back the real buy opportunity would be a test into 1835 1845 again, we got close to that yesterday. 1851 was a low and I'm surprised. We didn't, push lower overnight closing on the low, but the dollar started peeling back too.
So I would really want to keep a close eye on what the dollar is doing from a currency perspective, and how that's affecting the gold as well as what the treasury market's doing. Uh, because you got this really tight, pennant, that's building in the 30-year bond yield, and it's its, really it's. The 30 years moved up has some good resistance at 210. Now it has some really tremendous support about 190 is a big closing area and that's going to continue to consolidate. And if when we get a break in a direction, uh for in the 30 year, I think every market is going to take notice well you're talking about, you know, you were talking about just a little earlier what's, the.
Next trade and I know when we speak, we always talk about crude. We always talk about gold, but is there anything else out there in the markets? I know you like to focus a lot on different commodities? Is there anything else that really captures your attention right now in the marketplace? Yeah, I think everything.
I mean, in the sense that this is, I believe really we're at the onset of a secular bull market and commodities. I've said that multiple times people, some people come back and say, hey, It's, not secular, your definition of secular is not mine. I mean, secular means many many years.
Well, my answer when crude oil was back in the 40s and 50s. And I was calling it, you know where the onset of a secular bull market. My answer was what do you mean? Wait, wait until crude oil is at 100 before calling it a secular bull market. No, I'm calling it now.
So I mean, I think look at across the board and look at these commodities this year from agriculture to things in the metals to. Things and energies, everything is moving higher. People are not watching sugar and coffee and cotton coffee is breaking out this week ripping higher. Um options.
Exploration was uh last Friday. So you get these moves that that can come on options expiration or when things expire, because it sort of it sort of removes some pressure that that could be containing a market. So coffee was ripping higher, uh, sugar today is breaking it downtrend line.
Cotton had a big move, um, we're, getting bullish on. Cattle, I mean, my olive my partner Oliver slope does a tremendous amount and cattle, but there's, some really great seasonality that's coming in here. So even if you're just a macro trader, not somebody that's hedging your farm, but for macro basis, you're getting some really great seasonal and cattle that's started at the onset of December. I mean, there are really some great things. And then even looking farther out there, there's some really intricate, uh, type plays on a fundamental basis.
Look at the. Rising of cost every talking about inflation. Well, the input costs for agriculture is really going to could damage, uh, some production next year. And we think that one of the best ways to capitalize on that is December 2022 corn, because you could see fewer acres, uh being put in for corn in order to save costs. So again, there is a lot that's taking place and it's all behind this inflationary native narrative.
And now the dollar has risen recently, uh. And I think there's a lot of. Resistance in 96 and a half to 97. So I think the dollar is in basically the late innings of this rally. And when it starts to sell off whether it's next week or a month from now you're going to see commodities just roar higher, well, that's interesting, you know. And if you didn't talk to you about this, and I wasn't really thinking about until you mention it, you know, we're up for a new fed chairman or our chair. I shouldn't even say, chairman, we're up for a new fed chair.
And a lot of people. Speculate that it could be Powell or brained. And brained is a is a dove, and she's she's known to be more of a dove.
I mean, if she is a fed chair, and she becomes the fed chair and becomes confirmed as fed chair that that lavishness night might actually spill over more into the commodity market, really feed that secular bull that you're talking about do you have any opinions about the upcoming, fed chair, nominations any opinions there? Yeah, I do. I think we are seeing the federal.
Reserve more politically infused than ever before. And now obviously I didn't live for, you know, three years 20, 30 years ago and really and really, you know, know the markets like I'm 37. So I mean going back 30 40 years. I mean, that was sort of before my time I didn't live through that. But what I'm seeing here now is I was watching, uh, the PBS nighttime news show last night. Larry summers come on, and he is he's going on.
And it happened to be on my house, there's like a kid show on before. That and so I just saw it on and sat down there and started listening to it, and you know, he's going on and on about how this the spending bill that's going through Washington right now is not going to cause inflation. I mean, he is his he lies with. I mean, his allegiance he's, very left he's in the liberal side, democratic, but he's. So he's, defending what's going through Washington, right now and how it's not going to cause more inflation, which is just beyond my mind. I mean, then today I'm driving.
In and I hear a republican center on the news talking about how this is going to cause massive inflation, well, we know what spending is going to do. We know what spending has done it's going to cause massive inflation. My point in sort of getting to what you asked me is that we're there's. Everything is being politicized and allegiances are all over the board. I think right now. The inflation is real in the in Washington.
The White House is looking to pin this on somebody and fed chair Powell who was. He was lauded all last year for saving the world, saving the economy with his how quick he moved in. And it started stimulus he's going to go down as the sort of sacrificial lamb for the inflation that we're going to see next year. Mark my words, wow, well, that's some big words, and I'm excited to hear who gets nominated over the course, let's hope in the next week. So we can figure this out and figure out how to trade around it.
So hey, bill, uh, you know, I want to say first for those people that. Are listening in if you like, what bill does make sure you give a thumbs up to this video you're, giving a thumbs up to bill saying, I like what bill does make sure you subscribe to the channel because it's free to subscribe to our YouTube channel. So you don't miss any of your content. But bill you also contribute every day to the trader summit site and people can get your updated views where you don't have to wait for me to to to talk about crude, because you talk about it pretty much on a daily. Basis, so if I'm a trader I'm trying to figure out how to trade commodities, I want to trade with you. How do I find out more about you?
Well, our site bluelinefutures.com, you can sign up for a free trial of research it's, 14 days, it's, not just my content. But my partners as well I do write the morning express that goes on your website. Uh, you know, really every day covers the s, p, NASDAQ gold, crude oil, uh, silver as well.
But my partners write great stuff like I was just talking about sugar and soft. Commodities, my partner Philip strebel, he does a trend filing report on the soft markets as well as the FX markets. My other partner Oliver love does a tremendous stuff.
Tremendous amount of information with the grains going from corn, wheat, soybeans livestock. So we have everything there. And then we all do videos on a daily basis. You know, I talk about what's called the midday market minute covers, you know, the levels I was talking about earlier in the reports that were that I sent out that on. Your site, you know, my videos to sometimes go on your site as well.
Uh, my partner, Phil Steele does a metals edge. Video, all of this stuff is you can see on our YouTube channel as well. So we have ton of content out there. We'd love for you to visit us. And if you visit our YouTube follow us, give us a follow too.
We'd love you to follow us all right bill. Well, thank you so much. It's always a pleasure to speak with you. It always brings a smile to my face, and I love your calls. So um I'll be looking.
Forward to talking to you, maybe in a few weeks, catching you for what your views are going into 2022. Can you believe we're already at the end of this year? What a year all right bill? Hey, thanks for joining us today. Thank you very much for having me again, my pleasure, hey, traders, Blake, morrow here.
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